NEKULTURNY

некультурный

Writing is fun, but the world about which I write is becoming less fun by the day. 

Nekulturny, the title of this post, is the Russian word for antisocial, ‘uncultured’ behaviour. The word is appropriate for those in power in the Kremlin itself, who have placed their country outside the international order. Vladimir Putin has unchained war in Europe, possibly because finding an external enemy is the best answer to the internal unrest that has gripped Russia for years: the unrelenting protests against Putin by dissidents in the country, a courageous minority who aren’t fooled by the lies of a crook.

Vladimir Putin

Whatever we say of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, he is an admirable chess player, who prepared the invasion of his Slavic brother state step by step: propaganda, the gas pipeline war and hacker attacks, disinformation, a so-called military exercise, sending a so-called peacekeeping force, followed by an invasion with a force of over a hundred thousand men. Ukraine isn’t the first former Soviet republic this man invades with the object of adding it to his dream of Greater Russia. Others such as Georgia went before.

In essence, Putin follows in the footsteps of past dictators such as Napoleon, Stalin, Mao and Hitler. Putin can be added to the ranks of those whose names will be remembered in world history as a diabolic hissing in the dark. The greatest fear of any dictator is that of being overthrown. History learns that they all come to a sticky end - either they are murdered, or they have to run for their lives to avoid being strung up by their countrymen. They die in solitude, despised by all, and if they are brought to justice they invariably plead being ‘too feeble’ to attend court. Perhaps that is their last lie.

By now I have read a sizeable portion of Catherine Belton’s book Putin’s People, telling how Russia became a rogue state. An interesting book, if the endless series of dirty tricks, murder and manipulation by this man and his cronies doesn’t make you sick to your stomach during reading. Belton worked as a journalist in Moscow for several years and she did her homework.

Molotov and Von Ribbentrop, 1939

source:  https://www.eulixe.com/

The attack on Ukraine makes me think of the attack by Nazi Germany on Poland in 1939. We should remember that the Germans were so smart to sign a non-aggression treaty with the Russians beforehand: the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, which ensured the Russians wouldn’t interfere. Actually, the Soviets attacked the Poles from behind to speed their defeat. A year and a half on, the Soviets were invaded themselves and only threw the Germans out at the cost of millions of casualties, with the help of their great ally, General Winter, and of course, Allied logistics.

Europe and NATO now stand off and let Ukraine take the Russian onslaught. The risk of escalation is great if NATO should interfere, but it should be mentioned that both the EU and NATO have cornered Russia by pushing on their sphere of influence towards Russia for decades. Over 20 years ago this was warned against by Dutch politicians such as Frits Bolkestein and former NATO chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. Not my best friends, but they were right in this respect.

The short-term effect of economic sanctions is limited and may mainly hit the Russian people themselves, but not the Kremlin, which is said to have a well-filled treasury. It is a tough measure, but perhaps it will add to discontent in Russia. The tardiness of Western powers to impose sanctions also has a dark side: there is too much Western money tied up in Russia, and sanctions will backfire to Western economies. And finally, there is the gas pipeline matter, threatening to cut off the Russian gas. 

Putin has too many friends elsewhere in the world to make sanctions work properly. China is the most powerful of them, and ominously, Putin and Xi signed a non-aggression pact a few weeks ago. A present-day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact?

Poor Ukraine: the country has grown away from its Soviet legacy for decades, and the fierce  resistance of Ukrainian forces against the Russian invasion says enough. As I write this, the battle for Kyiv and Kharkiv is raging, and soldiers and civilians die in the streets. Ukraine is a large as France, and it is doubtful whether the Russians have the logistic resources to keep it occupied if they manage to defeat the Ukrainian army. Some incidents stand out, such as the reply of thirteen men on Snake Island to the commander of the Russian warship who demanded their surrender: ‘go f*ck yourself!’ Or the reaction of President Zelensky, who replied to the American offer of evacuation that he 'needed ammunition, not a ride to safety'. I hope Ukraine can keep up and give the Russian army a bloody nose. But at the cost of what? By now there are signs that Putin attacks civilian targets using cluster munition. There was one video of Kharkiv showing multiple small explosions spread across a building in the centre of the city. See this news page.

EDIT 3 March: Here is more proof of war crimes committed by the Russian forces: an attack on a residential area and a hospital with what looks like cluster ammunition in Chernihiv.

If Ukraine succumbs, the crisis may move to the Baltic and especially the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This city and its ex-KGB thugs play a part in one of my books: The Cargo. Once this was called Königsberg, and part of East Prussia, which during the Russian counter-attack on the Germans in 1944-1945 was ethnically cleansed end completely ‘russified’. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad became isolated, so the Russian wish of creating a corridor to the enclave is evident. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), all NATO members, are in the way, but naturally on the Kremlin’s wish list.

Russia and Kaliningrad enclave marked red

NATO is already anticipating the move, and has involved Finland and Sweden. Putin has warned that NATO involvement will result in something the world has never experienced before. The implicit nuclear threat rhetoric isn’t new - in the past the world has escaped only by a narrow margin, for instance, during the Cuba crisis. However, for years speculation has been made about the feasibility of the use of tactical nukes - a limited nuclear war, in other words. The decades-long reduction in conventional armament now puts NATO in a fix: the nuclear threshold is lowered. Up to now no one has dared use this ultimate weapon, as the risk of retaliation in kind is too great.

The world has been rudely shaken out of a complacent dream. As to the future? I can only echo the words in the 1985 song by Sting: I hope the Russians love their children too.